S. Roy and Shuvajit Roy
Abstract
Global warming exposes the fragile Indian Sundarbans to sea-level rise, severe cyclones, and soil salinization. Traditional livelihoods have collapsed, driving significant distress and out-migration. This leaves behind a dependent demographic profile of women, children, and the elderly, straining the local healthcare system. This study aims to assess the spatial distribution of socio-ecological vulnerability across the regionâs 19 community development blocks. Environmental variables (mean elevation, decadal erosion, and vegetation stress via NDVI) were sourced from USGS and MODIS databases. Socio-demographic data (marginal labor, poverty levels, and literacy rate) were extracted from the 2011 Census of India. After normalization, an Ecological Vulnerability Score (EVS) and Social Vulnerability Score (SVS) were averaged and combined into a weighted Socio-Ecological Vulnerability Index. Socio-ecological vulnerability varies heavily across the delta. Four coastal, active sea-face blocks, Sagar, Patharpratima, Gosaba, and Namkhana, exhibited âvery highâ vulnerability. It was characterized by low elevation, severe erosion, high vegetation stress, and systemic poverty. Four additional blocks (Hingalganj, Sandeshkhali II, Basanti, Kultali) faced âhighâ vulnerability, three showed âmoderateâ risk, and the remaining eight inland blocks displayed low to very low vulnerability. Socio-ecological vulnerability intensifies significantly from the mainland toward the outer coastal corridors. The interplay between environmental hazards and systemic economic deprivation serves as the ultimate catalyst for population displacement. Itâs disrupting local demographics and straining rural healthcare delivery. Proactive. Targeted structural interventions and climate-resilient health planning are urgently required for the highest-risk blocks.