Yellagandula Mani, S.R. Mishra, A.K. Singh, Alok Kumar Singh, A.N. Mishra and Rajesh Kumar Agrahari
Abstract
Rice is a major staple and dominant kharif crop in Ayodhya district, forming the backbone of local food security and farming systems. Yield fluctuations due to monsoon dependence, soil variability, and management practices create a significant gap between potential and actual yields. Crop simulation models operate through dynamic processes that capture interactions among plants, soil, and the environment. The CERES- Rice Model serves as reliable method for yield prediction and resource optimization by simulating crop growth and development under varying environments and management practices. The deviation in yield prediction for three rice varieties - Sarjoo-52, NDR-359 and NDR-370133 averaged block wise and the results revealed that in 2023â24, deviations ranged from â14.7% to 12.9% under F2 and â8.4% to 30.4% under F3. In 2024â25, the range was â14.6% to 16.4% (F2) and â9.7% to 22.1% (F3). In crop simulation model method for 7 blocks (F2) and 6 blocks (F3) in 2023â24, and 6 blocks each under F2 and F3 in 2024â25 exhibited acceptable deviations within ±10%. However, relatively higher deviations (>±10%) were observed in Purabazar, Milkipur, Bikapur and Rudauli (F3) during 2023â24. In 2024â25, such deviations were noted in Purabazar, Haringtonganj, Bikapur and Rudauli (F3). Overall, the model performance was slightly better under F2 compared to F3, as indicated by relatively lower deviations.