PREM PRAKASH, SNEHA SWARUP AND RAVISH KUMAR
Abstract
Increasingly more vulnerable to tropical cyclones in a warmer climate, overpopulated coastal areas along the North Indian Ocean are increasingly susceptible to them. This paper looks at the long-term variations of cyclone frequency, intensity, seasonality and rapid intensification along the Indian coastline, which includes both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. The oceanic and atmospheric parameters of data provided by satellite and reanalysis, such as the sea surface temperature, ocean heat content, wind shear, and humidity, are analyzed against cyclone records that are provided by the India Meteorological Department Cyclone eAtlas (1991â2024). Trend analysis employs linear regression and decadal comparison, whereas rapid intensification has been defined as a 30 kt or more increase in maximum sustained winds over a period of 24 hours. It has been found that there is a definite increase in severe and very severe cyclones, although the overall cyclone frequency has varied by a relatively small percentage. The Bay of Bengal is still the major basin of intense storms because of the continuous stratification of the upper ocean and the presence of high heat content. The last few decades indicate that there are more very severe cyclones in the Arabian sea, which are attributed to high sea surface temperature. Seasonal analysis shows that there is a pre- and post-monsoon activity that is linked with favorable thermodynamic conditions and weakening of vertical wind shears. The results highlight increasing difficulties in cyclone prediction and coastal risk management, in the sense that these areas require enhancements in the early warning system, infrastructural development in a resilient fashion and adaptation by ecosystems within the Indian coast.