EVER MOYO
Abstract
This study analyses macro-plastic pollution in Masvingo Urban, focusing on the role of flood events, water levels, and rainfall in influencing pollution levels, using time series analysis and regression modelling. A linear regression model demonstrated a strong relationship between macro plastic pollution and these environmental variables, with an R² value of 0.858, indicating that the model explains 85.8% of the variation in macro plastic pollution. The statistically significant relationship revealed a p-value < 0.001, confirming that flood events, water levels and rainfall is critical in determining pollution levels. The stationarity of the macro plastic pollution data using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test enables accurate forecasting. An ARIMAX (1,1,1) model captures the relationship between past pollution levels, water level fluctuations, rainfall, and flood events. The model revealed that water level (coefficient = 331.88), rainfall (coefficient = 0.766), and flood events (coefficient = 31.81) are significant predictors of macro plastic pollution. The most decisive influence on pollution transport was water levels. Based on the analysis, the study recommends improved waste management infrastructure, flood control measures, and community engagement initiatives to reduce flood-induced macro plastic pollution.