Rajan Kumar, Abhishek Singh, Vinod Kumar Tripathi and Manjubala Muthusamy
Abstract
In the present study the long-term relationship between percentage rural population and contribution of agricultural in total GDP of India has been explored using statistical models viz. autoregressive integrated moving average (arima) models. The contribution of agricultural in the total GDP of India has been substantial since the independence, but this contribution is continuously decreasing over the years. In India the percentage of urban population is continuously increasing and the percentage of rural population is continuously decreasing which is due to the migration of rural population to the urban areas. This phenomenon is reflected in the reduction of the contribution of the agriculture in the overall GDP of India. In this study the time series data of percentage rural population, percentage urban population and contribution of agriculture in overall GDP has been studied from the year 1960 to 2019 and forecast for future years has been made using arima models. The result indicated that percentage rural population of India will further reduce, percentage urban population will increase and contribution of agriculture in overall GDP of India will further reduce in the future.