M. Rajani, A. Balasubramanian and O. Sudhakar
Abstract
Fish is an essential component of the diet of the most popular in India. Fish production in India has increased at a higher rate compared to other food items. The most widely used time series models ARIMA was applied for modelling and forecasting of total, inland and marine fish production in India for a period from 1978-79 to 2021-22. The collected data during the third decade was found highly consistent and stable with less variability. The lowest mean fish production growth rate was observed in all three categories viz., Inland, Marine and Total fish production, in the fourth decade of study period, i.e., 2003-2012. Present study revealed that the model ARIMA (0,1,3) was best fit for forecasting marine fish production of India while ARIMA (0,2,1) was best model for both inland and overall fish production. The model forecasted that the fish production in all three categories would be in increasing trend for the next five years from 2022-23 to 2026-27 with highest estimated marine, inland and total fish production of 42.18 lakh tonne 162.78 lakh tonne and 211.64 lakh tonnes respectively during the year 2026-27.