STABILITY ANALYSIS OF FROZEN SHRIMP EXPORT DEMAND IN INDONESIA TO THE EUROPE AN UNIONHARSUKO RINIWATI
Frozen shrimp, Frozen shrimp condition Indonesia in the EU, Stability demand export, Demand export. Abstract - Frozen shrimp is one commodity that is favored sector to contribute to foreign exchange. But in the last ten years Indonesia frozen shrimp exports to the EU have declined. This decrease was due to reduced volume and value of exports of frozen shrimp from Indonesia to several main destination countries, especially the EU. This study was conducted to analyze the stability of demand for Indonesian exports of frozen shrimp to the EU and analyze the factors that affect demand for Indonesian frozen shrimp export to the EU. The data used is secondary data. Data collection methods used to obtain the data is the method of documentation. Variables used in this research is the dependent variable is the volume of demand for frozen shrimp export Indonesia to the European Union, while independent variables were used that the real price of frozen shrimp export Indonesia to the European Union, the real price of frozen shrimp export Thailand to the EU, Gross Domestic Product ( GDP) real European Union, and the real exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar. Data analysis methods used to analyze the market conditions of frozen shrimp Indonesia in the EU using qualitative descriptive analysis, to analyze the stability analysis Chow Break Point Test, and to analyze the factors that affect demand for frozen shrimp export Indonesia to the European Union using regression analysis of panel data. The results showed that the exports of frozen shrimp Indonesia fell by almost 50%. The decline occurred since 2007, and began to increase in 2013. The volume of exports of frozen shrimp Indonesia to the European Union does not show stability over the interval 2006-2015. Independent variables used significant effect together (simultaneously) or individually (partial) on the dependent variable and generate a regression model LnEKSit = -110.0865 - LnPXit + 0.729197 0.909523 4.921709 LnGDPit LnPYit + + -1.363458 LnKURSit + μit.
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