EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING AND IMPLICATION FOR LAND AND WATER MANAGEMENT FOR AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT: A CASE STUDY IN VIETNAMPham Quy Giang
This study was conducted to investigate the existence of global warming at a local scale with a case study of Nghe An, the largest province in Vietnam, and to draw implications for land and water resources management for agricultural development. An ensemble of Global Climate Models simulation with MAGICC/SCENGEN model and a statistical downscaling method were employed or temperature change prediction. The study found that during 40 years from 1971-2010, annual temperature rose by approximately 0.8 oC, meaning that it has risen 0.2 oC per decade. The province is also predicted to face with a severe warming climate in the future, which could warm as much as 3.9 oC by the end of this century. A warmer climate could lead to a number of issues regarding the variability of land and water resources in the province including the negative change of water cycle; the increase in the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts which could destruct the current land and water systems; degradation of land due to soil erosion which causes the loss of fertile soil; water pollution and water quality deterioration due to the transportation of heavy metals, pollutants, pesticides, and chemical fertilizers during heavier rains, etc. It is recommended that countermeasures should be planned in the framework of watershed management, which is the integrated use and management of land, vegetation and water resources while enhancing livelihoods and maintaining ecosystem services in the province.