Ecology, Environment and Conservation Paper

STATISTICAL MODELLING OF WIND VELOCITY IN CALCUTTA, INDIA

Prashanth Gururaja, Nittaya McNeil and Bright Emmanuel Owusu

Abstract

Knowledge of weather and climate events such as thunderstorms, cyclones and hurricane play a vital role in the management of natural hazards. This study uses statistical models to describe patterns of wind velocity in India. Hourly wind observations during 2004-2008 were obtained from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory for the study. The multinomial model was used to describe the patterns of wind velocity categories and logistic regression to investigate the prevalence of extreme wind velocity categories. The multinomial model fitted the data quite well in describing the prevalence patterns of wind categories. Analysis of the logistic regression model revealed that gusty westerly and easterly winds prevalence were mostly higher between 4 AM to 4 PM and 4 AM to 12 PM within the day (9% and 8%) respectively. Monthly gusty westerly and easterly winds have higher percentage between January to April (9%) and January to March (9%) while higher prevalence was revealed in 2007 (7%) and 2004 (8%) respectively.