Ecology, Environment and Conservation Paper

Vol 24, Feb. Suppl. Issue 2018; Page No.(16-24)

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FORECASTS FOR CROPPING PATTERNS IN SISTAN PLAIN

H. Siasar and T. Honar

Abstract

Climate change is one of the current problems of human societies and is considered a great threat. Investigating and predicting the elements of this is of great importance both in terms of crisis management and planning of water resources. Therefore, it is necessary to study climatic elements to take the right actions in water resources management and prevent losses. To forecast the temperature of Sistan synoptic station and its effects on evapotranspiration, the maximum, minimum temperatures, mean of relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed, and evaporation pan of Sistan synoptic station since 2014 were obtained and used. Stability and normality of the data were tested by Q-Q graphs and partial autocorrelation functions. Using a suitable differencing, data were normalized and stable. Then, minimum and maximum time series and average temperature in Sistan stations were forecasted and through autocorrelation and partial auto relation function, the accuracy of the model was ensured. In addition, this model was validated by actual data for years 2014 and 2015 and was approved. The model (1,1,1) (3,1,3) was detected to predict temperature in Sistan station. The effect of temperature changes on the calculation of potential evapotranspiration of Sistan station has been investigated using FAO-Penman-Monteith and Hargreaves- Samani method. The results showed that in the next five years, the maximum, minimum, and mean temperature will increase. This increase will be as big as 0.01mm in December when there is the lowest evapotranspiration. In January and October, the potential evapotranspiration will increase 0.8 and 0.72 mm, respectively, which will severely affect water consumption in different parts.

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