Ecology, Environment and Conservation Paper

Supplement Issue, Dec. 2014; Page No.(323-329)

PRICE FORECASTING OF ROSE WOOD (DALBERGIA LATIFOLIA ROXB.) – BY AN APPLICATION OF EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING, INDIA

T. Vasanth Kumar, A.S Kamble, M. Sudheendra and H.B. Mallikarjuna

Abstract

Timber is now becoming a scarce commodity. The demand for industrial wood is 0.4 million cubic meters and the prediction is 1.6 million cubic meters. Rose Wood is an important timber species grown in India and is much appreciated by carpenters. Time series data of Rose Wood in different classes were collected from Dandeli depot, Karnataka State from September 1996 to September 2011 with following headings: CIIc, CIb, DIc & DIVb (Shown in Appendix). Where, in classesÂ’ first English capital letter represent the quality, second roman number represents the length and last small English letter shows the girth of a timber. The timber lot is classified based on standard classification such as diameter classes, height classes & quality classes. Forecasting of price of Rose Wood by an Exponential Smoothing model was applied. The Forecasts were made for four years ahead from September 2011. It indicates that, the error between actual price and forecasted price were very less and it shows best model for short term forecasting.

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