HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGES, A CASE STUDY OF THE AREA: FARS PROVINCE, IRANE. ASRARI AND M. MASOUDI
Country of Iran appears to be one of the most sensitive regions to the recent climatic changes. In this paper, according to the data of 30 stations in Fars Province located in the southern Iran, during 1972-2006, the trend of climate changes and its severity are evaluated. A consistent correlation is highlighted for trends of Domarton index as indicator of climate and temperature rise in some stations. Based on the results of the temperature analysis, 56% of the region has become warmer, 3% has become colder and 41% has been faced without significant changes. The precipitation in the 14% of the region has been increased, in 34% has been decreased and 52% of the region doesnt show any significant changes. About the climate changes: 36% of the area of the region has become arid, 9% of the area has become more humid and 55% of the area has been without significant changes. A hazard classification for climate change based on trends of temperature and the aridity index of Domarton during the period have been used which shows 32% of the region under without or no change class, 13% under moderate class, 47% under severe class and 8% shows very severe class. This contribution provides the first experimental data-based evidence demonstrating the link between the global warming and the intensification of aridity in most parts of southern Iran. This corresponds to more desertification, frequency and intensity of droughts and observing lost lakes during the last decades in the study area.
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