Ecology, Environment and Conservation Paper

CLIMATE MODELING BY LARS-WG DOWNSCALING MODEL CASE STUDY: KERMANSHAH, IRAN

Ahmad Rajabi and Saeid Shabanlou

Abstract

There are different methods for downscaling local variables from GCMs scenarios. The present study makes use of Lars-WG model for downscaling daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation in Kermanshah synoptic station and HadCM3 global circulation model with different scenarios B1, A1B, and A2. Kolmogrov-Smirnov test for controlling data being normal, Auto Correlation Function (ACF) for controlling internal correlation of data , Wilcoxon rank sum method and Levene’s test are used respectively to compare means difference and variances of two populations. Downscaled data of the three climate parameters were calculated in three time periods: 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099. About precipitation in all scenarios, precipitation change does not follow any specific increase or decrease amount. About daily minimum and maximum temperature in all scenarios, there will be temperature increase in future periods and the increase in minimum and maximum temperature are almost the same.