FORECASTING THE EMISSION OF CARBON-DI-OXIDE EQUIVALENT IN KEY SECTORS OF INDIA USING ARIMA MODELDeepa S. and Vijayasree G.Abstract Climate Change is a global challenge and needs to be addressed immediately. The emission of Green House Gases in the atmosphere by anthropogenic factors is one of the major causes of Global Warming and Climate Change. India is working towards the control of global warming by focussing on controlling Green House Gas emissions. The emission of carbon-di-oxide in the atmosphere plays a predominant role in global warming. The Global Warming potential of the Green House Gases is measured in terms of carbon-dioxide equivalent CO2 (eq.). The annual CO2 (eq.) emission data from 2005-2015 from four key sectors viz., Energy, Industry Process and Product Use (IPPU), Agriculture Forestry and Land Use (AFOLU), and the Waste sector were considered in the study. Classical Temporal disaggregation methods Denton, Denton Cholette, Chow - Lin, Fernandez, and Litterman methods were employed to disaggregate the low frequency (annual) data to high frequency (quarterly) data. The analysis revealed that the Chow - Lin method of disaggregation best suited to disaggregate the CO2 (eq.) series for the three sectors except AFOLU with anAdjusted R square of 0.9 and the current Price GDP is the good indicator series for CO2 (eq.). The disaggregated data is modelled using ARIMA modelling. The CO2 (eq.) from 2021-Q1 to 2023-Q4 is forecasted using the fitted ARIMA model for each sector. |