Ecology, Environment and Conservation Paper

Vol.18, Issue 3, 2012; Page No.(497-504)

SIMULATION OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE IN TWO HUMID AND SEMIARID CLIMATES USING STOCHASTIC MODELS

N. Pirmoradian and S.A. Shamsnia

Abstract

Survey of climatic parameters temporal variations is important in hydro-meteorological and hydrological studies. Temperature and precipitation are the probabilistic events with temporal variations. Therefore, stochastic models and time series analysis have been proposed as a technique to generate scenarios of future these parameters changes. The goal of this study was the simulation and modeling of monthly precipitation and mean of monthly temperature using stochastic methods at Rasht with a humid climate and Shiraz with a semiarid climate. The results showed that time series analysis methods were generally more successful in modeling of temperature related to precipitation. Also, precipitation modeling in humid climate (Rasht) was done with more accuracy related to semiarid climate (Shiraz). This result was different about temperature. The time series approach in temperature modeling presented the better results in semiarid climate (Shiraz) rather than humid climate (Rasht).

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