DEVELOPING AN ENTERPRISE RISK’S EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY IN LESOTHO USING RDIBERNARD MOEKETSI HLALELE AND REITUMETSE PEARL MOTATIAbstract Textile industry in Lesotho contributes approximately 40 to 45% of the Gross Domestic Product and employs over 40 000 Basotho. Although Lesotho is a water rich country, this industry uses large amounts of water and has put increased pressure on this major natural resource. In order to assist regulate and effectively manage water usage in the Lesotho textile industry, the current study develops an early warning system to keep this industry in business during the current rapidly changing climate regime. The study used both monthly average precipitation and temperature to compute a water balance standardised precipitation drought index (RDI) on 6,9 and 12-time scales obtained from Lesotho Meteorological Services. Expectation Maximum (EM) algorithm was used in replacing the missing values of both data sets. Drin C software was used in computing SPI values. Results revealed statistically decreasing Mann Kendallâ trend on all RDI-6, 9 and 12-time scales. This implied a situation where the study area is moving into hydrological drought events. The spectral analysis revealed return periods of 3 to 7 years on all the three selected scales. This implied Lesotho drought is driven by El Nina events whose cyclicity is 3 to 7 years. With these results, the study area is expected to be in drought in 2019. The industry is therefore expected to use water sparingly during the expected drought events. The study warns all water users and the government to use water with caution as RDI is significantly getting negative. Measures such as water restrictions and rationing are therefore encouraged as the study area in its second year after the 2015/16 drought disaster. |