PREDICTION OF TEMPERATURE DATA FOR GHATAPRABHA SUBBASIN USING CHANGE FACTOR METHODBharath A., Preethi S., Manjunatha M., Ranjitha B. Tangadagi and ShankaraAbstract In this work, two-dimensional interpolation technique has been used to re-grid the large-scale temperature outputs data (daily temperature data) to predict the behavior of temperature variations at different time scales. Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model-1.1 (BCC-CSM 1.1) concept and India Meteorological Department (IMD) data to regional scales have been considered in the Change Factor Method (CFM) to project the temperature data to regional scale of 0.5° x 0.5° over Ghataprabha basin, India, for the time period 2021-2100. An attempt is made to predict the impacts of climate change on temperature by projecting to future scenarios such as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) at different time scales of the region. The study revealed that the temperature increases with an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Because of increased temperatures, the natural, ecological and socio-economic conditions. Change factor methodology is found to be more accurate method in projecting the temperature data. The maximum values of Tmax are 39.91°, 40.92°, 41.38° and 42.70°C whereas minimum of Tmin are 10.89°, 10.92°, 10.97° and 11.20 °C for 2.6, 4.5, 6 and 8.5 RCP scenarios respectively. Conversely, drying has been observed to be more severe under RCP 8.5 scenario. |