UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE IN TERMS OF RAINFALL FLUCTUATIONS AND STATUS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY IN NORTHEASTERN STATES OF INDIANiranjan Roy, Avijit Debnath and Sunil NautiyalAbstract Although several studies have been done to understand climate change in India, state wise analysis on trend of climatic variables particularly of rainfall is lacking in northeast India. The paper analyses the behaviour of annual and seasonal rainfall in Northeaster region of India looking for trends in long historical data series. We have used Senâs coefficient and modified MannâKendall test to analyse historical rainfall data monthly, annually and seasonally. The data for the present study were obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). Our analysis shows that there is huge variation in monthly rainfall trends from one state to another. Seasonal wise analysis displays a negative trend of rainfall for most seasons and most states. Finally, annual data reveals that Assam, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, and Sikkim have experienced decreasing trend of rainfall during the study period. Arunachal Pradesh is the only state where the annual trend of rainfall is on the rise. This decreasing trend of rain fall is really an issue of concern given the fact that the Northeast is agrarian economy which immensely relies on natural rainfall for agricultural activities. Further the infrastructure for assured irrigation facilities has not been developed in the region as of yet. As the agricultural productivity is very low, public policy support for development of irrigation infrastructure is urgently required for diversifying agricultural sector. |