Ecology, Environment and Conservation Paper

DYNAMIC SYSTEM MODELING TO ANALYZE THE SUSTAINABILITY OF INDUSTRIAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT (CASE STUDY: GRESIK URBAN AREA - EAST JAVA)

Achmad Hadi, Soemarno, Arief Rachmansyah and Abdul Wahid Hasyim

Abstract

The development of industrial estates in Indonesia for the past 20 years has become a strategic sector to support national economic growth. However, conventional industrial management has a significant impact on changes in productive land use and environmental quality degradation. This study aims to analyze the development of industrial estates in the Gresik region with a dynamic system, compile a dynamic model of the development of sustainable industrial estates, and analyze the sustainability parameters of environmental, economic and social aspects based on the scenario of industrial estate development in the Gresik urban area. Dynamic system analysis of sustainable industrial estate development is carried out with 7 stages using Powersim and Vensim software with a diagrammatic output model in the form of a main causal loop system, land use submodel, environmental submodel, economic submodel and social submodel. The results of the projected implementation of the dynamic model with 3 scenarios of industrial land development for each submodel parameter at a time of 20 years (2037) namely; (1) Industrial land use always increases every year until it is projected to reach an area of 4,000-5,000 ha or an additional 45% -60% of the existing area; (2) Production of liquid and solid wastes has increased in volume to 5,500 - 6,100 tons / day so that it has the potential to become a pollutant for the environment and can reduce the status of ecological sustainability; (3) The increase in land and the number of industries encourages an increase in Regional Original Revenue and the Regional Budget and Gresik Regency, and simultaneously increasing investment can contribute to an increase in per capita income which is projected to reach 280 million / year (20,000 USD) to support sustainability economy; (4) An increase in the population runs linearly with an increase in the labor force that requires employment opportunities, however, the growth of labor absorption due to the development of the number of industries is greater so that it can be socially sustainable because it is projected to reduce the unemployment rate to 0%.